China faces the highest default embedded emissions across Steel, Aluminium and Cement — carrying some of the largest CBAM cost exposure globally.
China is the world's largest producer of steel, aluminium, and cement. EU-bound exports include structural steel sections, flat-rolled products, tubes, and primary aluminium semi-fabricates. Chinese steel and aluminium default values are among the highest in IR 2025/2621, reflecting coal-intensive production. Chinese ammonia carries a default of 4.36 tCO₂e/t — the highest of any major exporting country.
Carbon pricing in China: China's national ETS (CN-ETS) covers the power generation sector but does not currently impose a verified, reported carbon price on steel, aluminium, or cement production.
The Chinese national ETS covers power generation only. Steel, aluminium, and cement producers do not currently pay a qualifying carbon price under Article 9 criteria. No Art. 9 deduction is available for Chinese CBAM-covered goods as of 2026. The Commission has not recognised CN-ETS as qualifying for deduction purposes.
Chinese producers face the highest default values of any major CBAM-affected country — steel semi-finished at 3.17 tCO₂e/t (BF-BOF) and primary aluminium at 3.00 tCO₂e/t. Producers with actual emissions below these defaults have a strong financial case for verification. The gap between default and actual can represent tens of millions of euros in certificate costs for large-volume exporters by 2030.
Verify Your Actual Emissions →Estimate your 2026–2034 CBAM certificate costs using your sector, volume, and production route.
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Request Assessment →Default values sourced from IR 2025/2621 (EU Commission). Net costs are illustrative — actual liability depends on verified embedded emissions, SEFA benchmark deduction, and the applicable CBAM phase-in factor. Not legal or compliance advice.